Friday, May 18, 2012

Realtors Optimistic On Spring Home Sales Season, As Investors Eye Builders LEN DHI MHO RYL - Investors.com


Anyone who makes a living in residential real estate knows better than to crack open the champagne just because of some encouraging housing data.

Still, it's hard not to get cautiously upbeat over recent trends that point to an improving U.S. housing market and indicate some further strengthening in months to come.

National real estate analysts and local real estate agents sound encouraged by the state of housing as it enters the stretch drive of the spring home-selling season.

Foot traffic is up, prices are stabilizing by some measures and sales are trending higher. Recent housing statistics suggest the market is at its strongest point in years.

"Demand is up, and the psyche of the consumer is much better than it has been in years," said the National Association of Realtors' Ken Fears, manager of regional economics.

Agents See Change

How much spring homebuying are real estate agents noticing right now? Nate Johnson, with Keller Williams Realty in northern Virginia, says his team is "seeing a lot of buyers out there" and getting multiple offers on short-sale properties. His work is concentrated in Fairfax County, just across the Potomac River from Washington, D.C.

Although down 2.6% monthly in March, the pace of U.S. existing home sales reached its highest level since 2007 in the first quarter, up 4.7% from the previous quarter and more than 5% from the prior year.

Prospects for new home sales are looking better too. Investor optimism has pushed IBD's Building — Residential/Commercial industry group to the top-ranked spot among 197 groups tracked, with Lennar (LEN), Standard Pacific (SPF), MI Homes (MHO), Ryland Group (RYL) and D.R. Horton (DHI) among highly rated stock market performers. Still, after an exuberant rise, several builder stocks gave up some gains Thursday ahead of April home sales numbers due out next week.

Near Washington, D.C., the main challenge now is finding homes people want to sell, Johnson says.

"The inventory is very low in some places," he said. "Many people are upside-down on their mortgages and can't sell."

Short sales occur when more is owed on a home than it sells for, when a lender does agree to a sale.

"A lot of our short-sale inventory are condos," Johnson said. "A lot of investors are snapping those up at inexpensive prices with the idea of renting them out."

Looking For Listings

A lack of inventory is also a problem in certain Atlanta neighborhoods, says Thom Abbott, an associate broker at Thomas Ramon Realty at Palmer House Properties. His firm specializes in midtown condos at prices ranging from $80,000 to more than $600,000.

by Vince Cariaga Investor's Business Daily May 17, 2012


Realtors Optimistic On Spring Home Sales Season, As Investors Eye Builders LEN DHI MHO RYL - Investors.com

PV Mountain Shadows resort owner defaults on loan

The owner of the Mountain Shadows resort in Paradise Valley has defaulted on his loan but says the long-shuttered property's redevelopment will move forward.

A trustee's sale for the resort has been set for July 26.

However, officials with California-based Crown Realty and Development Inc., say that the firm wants to avoid the foreclosure, and is negotiating with lender U.S. Bank Special Assets Groupon a resolution.

Crown Realty, owned by Robert Flaxman, also developed the InterContinental Montelucia Resort & Spa in Paradise Valley, which defaulted on a $180 million loan about three years ago.

Flaxman owes at least $360,000 in taxes on the Mountain Shadows property, according the the Maricopa County Treasurer's Office.

Jason Rose, a spokesman for Crown Realty, said if they are successful in negotiations, there will be no sale. If they are not, Crown can bid on the property at the auction.

"They are optimistic about a resolution," Rose said. "They feel confident in a favorable resolution with the bank that will translate into a favorable re-development of Mountain Shadows for the town."

Dozens of residents showed up for a preliminary presentation of their plans for re-developing the resort, at a Town Council meeting Thursday afternoon.

The plan includes resort hotel, residential, golf and retail facilities.

At the meeting, Flaxman, said his firm plans to work through the loan default.

He bought the 68-acre property from Host Marriott Corp. for $42 million, in January 2007. Host Marriott Corp. is now known as Host Hotels & Resorts.

"We are committed to this project and plan to see it through," Flaxman said.

Town Manager Jim Bacon said Crown Realty has had an application on file with Paradise Valley for several years.

The firm plans to submit a revised application this week.

"The owner has the right to move forward with an application," Bacon said, whether the property is in default or not.

The Mountain Shadows resort, which remains closed at 56th Street and Lincoln Drive, has drawn potential re-development possibilities in recent months.

Residents became hopeful when Phoenix-based JDM Partners, co-owned by sports mogul Jerry Colangelo, entered into a purchase agreement for Mountain Shadows in December.

JDM's projects include Chase Field, US Airways Center,Comerica Theatre and the remodel of the Wigwam resort in Litchfield Park, which represented the company's first foray into the hospitality industry.

However, the firm announced last month that it was unable to reach a final agreement with Crown Realty and is no longer under contract for the property.

JDM officials provided no more information, citing a confidentiality provision in the purchase agreement.

by Philip Haldiman - May. 15, 2012 10:06 AM The Republic | azcentral.com



PV Mountain Shadows resort owner defaults on loan

Investment group buys Buckeye parcel for $7.4 million

An investment group has purchased 2,389 acres of bank-owned land at the northeast corner of Sun Valley Parkway and Thomas Road in Buckeye for about $7.4 million, or $3,098 per acre, a broker involved in the deal said.

The buyer was Elianto LANDVEST, an Arizona entity formed by LANDVEST North America, of California, according to commercial real estate firm Colliers International in Phoenix, which represented LANDVEST.

The seller, Bank Midwest of Kansas City, Mo., was represented by commercial real estate firm Land Advisors in Scottsdale.

Previously the land was to become a residential community for Lennar Homes, which had spent more than $16 million on entitlements alone, Colliers said.

by J. Craig Anderson - May. 15, 2012 04:36 PM The Republic | azcentral.com



Investment group buys Buckeye parcel for $7.4 million

Subdivisions go urban as housing growth shifts

Townhouses and single-family homes are sprouting on old industrial sites in the heart of Southern California cities. In Florida, developers are coveting foreclosed golf courses in urban centers to put up new subdivisions. Builders in Texas are going after available land even near landfills for residential and retail development.

Why are the giants of the building industry, the creators for decades of massive communities of cookie-cutter homes, cul-de-sacs and McMansions in far-flung suburbs, doing an about-face? Why are they suddenly building smaller neighborhoods in and close to cities on land more likely to be near a train station than a pig farm?

A housing industry slowly shaking off the worst economic conditions in decades is rethinking what type of housing to build and where to build it. It's a response to a new wave of home buyers who have no desire to live in traditional subdivisions far from urban amenities.

The nation's development patterns may be at a historic juncture as builders begin to reverse 60-year-old trends. They're shifting from giant communities on wide-open "greenfields" to compact "infill" housing in already-developed urban settings.

The market slowdown has given builders time to assess sweeping demographic changes that are transforming the way Americans want to live.

Young Millennials and older Baby Boomers are rejecting traditional suburban lifestyles in favor of urban living and shorter commutes. Many want to live near city centers so they can walk to work, shops and restaurants or take public transportation. They also prefer smaller homes because they're single or have no kids and don't want to spend their free time maintaining their homes.

"It's the kids (ages 18 to 32), the empty nesters (Baby Boomers with no kids at home)," says Chris Leinberger, president of Smart Growth America's LOCUS (Latin for "place"), a national coalition of real estate developers and investors who support urban developments that encourage walking over driving. "These two generations combined are more than half of the American population."

The housing bust of the last five years hit hardest in subdivisions in remote suburbs, drying up financing for such development. At the same time, gas prices soared and so did environmental consciousness, giving consumers pause about living in distant suburbs away from services, jobs and entertainment.

California couple Maurice Turner and his wife, Preet Bassi, used to rent in the center of Anaheim. When they decided to buy, they found their choices limited at first.

"The majority of homes were single-family homes in the suburbs or older homes and multi-story condos in the city," says Turner, administrative manager in a nearby city.

The 30-something professionals did not want to leave city neighborhoods and settle in a suburban subdivision. And they didn't want to live in a multi-story condo building.

That was about the time Brookfield Homes, a leading developer of huge suburban subdivisions, began Colony Park -- more than 500 single-family homes, townhouses and condominiums in Anaheim's Historic District on a site that once housed industrial warehouses. Many of the townhomes are across the street from restaurants, entertainment and other urban attractions.

Turner and Bassi now live in a three-story, 1,700-square-foot townhouse where they and their neighbors make "a conscious effort to spend less time in your car commuting and spend more time in your neighborhood with friends, neighbors, family," Turner says. "The urban environment was a big key to staying."

Growth patterns shift

Developers are listening because the market has spoken loud and clear.

Latest Census data show that population growth in fringe counties nearly stopped in the 12 months that ended July 1, 2011, and urban counties at the center of metro areas grew faster than the nation as a whole, a USA TODAY analysis found.

Central metro counties accounted for 94% of U.S. growth, compared with 85% just before the recession and housing bust.

A recent Case Western Reserve University study found that Cleveland's inner city is growing faster than its suburbs for the first time.

In January 2000, the highest price per square foot in the Washington, D.C., metro area was in the leafy suburb of Great Falls, Va., according to Zillow, a real estate research firm. Ten years later, townhouses in the hip and urban Dupont Circle neighborhood of Washington were worth 70% more per square foot than property in Great Falls.

"These are the market signals we're getting throughout the country," Leinberger says. "The drivable suburban fringe is where the housing market collapsed -- 80% of the collapsed market was there. It's a classic case of the real estate industry overproducing."

Most major builders have created "urban" divisions in the past five years to scout for available land in already-developed parts of cities and closer suburbs -- even if it means former industrial and commercial sites or land that may require environmental cleanup.

This shift doesn't mean the end of sprawling suburban subdivisions in onetime cow pastures and corn fields, but it does signal a notable change that could alter the housing landscape for years to come.

"There has been a huge shift, particularly in the last 10 years," says Marie York, president of real estate consulting York Solutions in Palm Beach County, Fla., and a board member of the American Planning Association. "There's an emphasis on walkability, an emphasis on health, an emphasis on commuting by bicycle ... a shift away from blatant consumerism and the McMansion model."

The shift is not temporary, says Gregory Vilkin, managing principal and president of MacFarlane Partners, a San Francisco-based real estate investment company building 170 units on the site of former parking lots and auto repair shops in South Lake Union, a new urban project in Seattle.

Vilkin headed one of the nation's largest urban redevelopments while at the helm of Forest City Enterprises' residential real estate division: Stapleton, a cluster of neighborhoods built on 7.5 square miles on the site of the old Stapleton International Airport in Denver. Developers built 11 units per acre compared with four per acre in traditional suburban subdivisions.

"I reject the premise that (the shift) is just because of the recession," Vilkin says. "It's no longer the American dream to own a plot of land with a house on it and two cars in the driveway."

Adds Leinberger: "This is a structural change, not a cyclical downturn."

Moving toward the center

Whether it's temporary or a seminal moment in the nation's development history, the housing bust and recession have prompted developers to set their sights inward. When property values drop, so does investment. And because values dropped the most on the outer edges of metro areas, developers are paying attention to sites they never considered before.

"It makes you not look at these large properties on the edge of the Earth anymore," says Denise Gammon, president of the communities division of Florida-based Kitson & Partners. "There's a dramatic shift going on."

Gammon also worked on Stapleton, and Kitson hired her to develop their infill business. In Tampa, the company is building Bay Pines, which will have multi-family housing, hotel, grocery store and shops on 60 acres that once was the site of a mobile home park.

"It's an area of Tampa that hasn't seen new housing in 25 years," she says. "The conventional model is obsolete. People are looking for something different."

In California, KB Home built Primera Terra at Playa Vista, near Marina Del Rey, on the site of an old Hughes Aircraft site. The condos highlight energy efficiency, proximity to shops, parks and schools, and prices under $600,000 (no garages).

"It has drawn an incredible number of people," says Steve Ruffner, president of KB Home Southern California. "People are very interested in technology in a home that's not only good for the environment but saves them ownership costs --Energy Star, solar."

Executives of Dallas-based Huffines Communities sensed a revolution was afoot after attending a builders' show in Orlando in 2005 when they realized that investors were the dominant buyers of suburban housing -- not consumers.

The company had nine so-called "master-planned communities" in the works that would go up on undeveloped land in outer suburbia.

"We sold six and kept three," says Robert Kembel, Huffines president. The company redeployed its capital to redeveloping sites in cities. "If people prefer to live closer to the jobs center, the pricing you can command is higher and there's less competition," Kembel says.

Huffines is developing Viridian, 5,000 units on a 2,300-acre site in a flood plain near a landfill in Arlington, Texas. The project required lengthy and costly cleanup and wetlands restoration measures.

"Developers who have the patience to go to the city or county and negotiate public-private partnerships to help mitigate huge costs, those are the guys who win," Kembel says.

No time for big yards

Suburbia is changing, too.

Established suburbs such as Virginia's Fairfax County, outside Washington, D.C., are building town centers that combine residential and retail on greenfields. Rapid transit lines are expanding through Tysons Corner, site of two shopping malls and headquarters of major corporations. Plans are for dense, high-rise development.

Even traditional communities built on greenfields are transforming. In Southern California's Inland Empire, an area where housing prices are lower and appeal to first-time buyers, Brookfield is building Edenglen in Ontario. The homes are built on smaller lots -- 4,500 square feet instead of the more conventional 7,200 square feet -- and priced from $200,000 to $300,000.

"We've seen a lot of single females, single males, couples without kids," says Carina Hathaway, vice president of marketing. "They don't really have time to maintain huge yards."

But Kembel predicts infill development is the wave of the future. Military bases that have shuttered offer huge opportunities, and so do old subdivisions built when sprawling suburbia was born in the 1950s and 1960s, he says.

"For the first time in history, Americans have stopped pushing development to the edge," says Robert Lang, professor of urban affairs at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and author of Megapolitan America. "The shift is from the old crabgrass frontier to the new Main Street."

by Haya El Nasser - May. 15, 2012 04:03 PM USA Today




Subdivisions go urban as housing growth shifts

Builder confidence highest in 5 years

WASHINGTON - -- Confidence among U.S. builders rose to the highest level in five years in May, a hopeful sign that modest improvement in the housing market will pick up.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index rose to 29 in May. That's the highest reading since May 2007 and up from a downwardly revised reading of 24 in April.

The index rose for six straight months before falling in April.

Still, any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn't reached hit that level since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

Homebuilders reported improving sales and higher traffic from prospective buyers. A gauge measuring confidence in sales over the next six months also rose, to 34 from 31.

The improved outlook follows other recent signs that the depressed housing market is slowly improving.

In March, builders requested the highest number of permits to build new homes and apartments in 3 1/2 years. And the number of people who signed contracts to buy homes rose in March to the highest level in nearly two years.

Mortgage rates have fallen to record lows and hiring has picked up, making it easier for more Americans to buy homes. Still, many would-be buyers are having difficulty qualifying for home loans or can't afford larger down payments required by banks.

by CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER - May. 15, 2012 07:36 AM AP Economics Writer




Builder confidence highest in 5 years

The Dangers of High-Speed Trading - US  Business News - CNBC

Arbitrage potential at the speed of light at 11 millisecond between NYSE and CME...

Comstock | Getty Images


Eric Scott Hunsader has gone completely down the rabbit hole, and he doesn’t like what he’s finding there.

Hunsader is the CEO of a Chicago-based market analytics firm that specializes in high-frequency trading — super fast trades executed at the speed of light that can alter asset prices faster than human beings can react to the changes.

Based on his own analysis, Hunsader has come to a startling conclusion: Markets today are even more susceptible to sudden failure than they were two years ago during the “flash crash,” which brought the stock market down by about 1,000 points in mere minutes.

That’s because a new breed of trader armed with hundreds of millions of dollars to deploy is trading so fast—and with such spikes in volume—that he can dry up liquidity in an instant, causing severe price swings.

To explain to a lay person, Hunsader offers up two examples of the kinds of trades he’s seeing. The first happened less than a minute before the April Jobs report was released by the Department of Labor in Washington.

That report is traditionally one of the most dramatic market-moving events of each month. As a result, traders tend to lie low in the minute or so before the number comes out at 8:30 a.m. on the first Friday of each month, so they don’t get caught when the market changes.

But Hunsader argues that he’s seeing a small group of high speed traders who aren’t lying low. In fact, they’re taking advantage of the regular and predictable lull in the market to pop high speed trades in order to intentionally create a several hundred millisecond burst of volatility, and then execute follow-on trades to profit from that.

To understand what happens, you have to go inside just one second of trading and look at the way markets move at speeds that can be almost imperceptible to human beings.

On May 4, Hunsader says, he spotted those traders just before the April number was released. At 8:29:20 and about 200 milliseconds, he says, someone — he has no way of knowing who — executed a trade in the five year T-note futures market worth about $150 million.

A chart of that single second in the market shows that prices are relatively stable until the trade. And just after that, for the rest of the second, prices spike, and gyrate up and down as other automated high speed computers react to the trade.

Hunsader says he doesn’t know exactly how the traders make money off the volatility that they create, but he suspects they’re making other trades in the milliseconds following their market moving trade that take advantage of the relationships between this market and others that are impacted by it.

The traders that move first, and fastest, win, he says.

“It’s like two guys running in the woods, and they see a bear and one guy drops down and puts his shoes on and the other guy says, ‘what are you doing that for, you can’t outrun a bear,’” Hunsader says. “And the guy goes, ‘I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you.’”

On another occasion, Hunsader says he saw traders taking advantage of something as fundamental as the speed of light.

Because trades are executed by fiber-optic cable, the fastest they can travel—and the fastest anything in the universe can travel—is the speed of light. But even at that speed, it takes about 11 milliseconds for information from exchanges based in New York to get to exchanges based in Chicago. And that provides an opportunity for arbitrage for those who can move fast enough.

“Recently, they put in this new high speed line between Chicago and New York,” Hunsader says. “Essentially (they) drilled through mountains to shave a few milliseconds — thousandths of seconds — off, getting it down to 11 milliseconds. But I think somebody’s figured out how to get it to zero milliseconds.”

And the way they do that, in effect, became clear on May 3, Hunsader argues.

At 9:59:11 and about 620 milliseconds, someone executed a trade in Chicago, purchasing about 1,300 ES contracts for about $70 million. That happened to come in a lull just before two economic indicators were to be released at 10 a.m. that day.

At the exact same millisecond, 9:59:11 and about 620 milliseconds, Hunsader says, another trade was executed: Somebody bought 260,000 shares of a closely correlated product, SPY, for about $36 million.

Hunsader has no way of knowing for sure it was the same person executing both trades. But he says he sees same millisecond trades happening in both cities in related products often enough that he doesn’t think it can be pure coincidence.

In fact, he says, someone placing big orders in related products in both cities would gain a valuable advantage: for 11 milliseconds, they would be the only ones in the world who knew what happened in both markets.

By the time Chicago received the information about what happened in New York, and New York received the information about what happened in Chicago, Hunsader says, the traders who execute such trades would have a relatively long time to position themselves for the predictable fallout. And that’s a profit opportunity.

“The speed of light is fast,” Hunsader says, “But it’s not as fast as the high frequency traders would like it to be.”

The trick is, you have to have a super-fast computer and $100 million in deployable cash to make it work.

Hunsader says he sees these trades happening so frequently, in fact, that he advises individual investors not to make any trades at all between 9:58 and 10:02 a.m. Eastern, since many economic reports are released at exactly 10 a.m.

The high speed, high volume trading he’s seeing can cause asset prices to gap by small increments — so that if you’re executing a trade at that minute and a high speed trader is jamming data lines at the same time, you might not get the deal at the price you thought when you pressed the button to process the trade.

What’s more, Hunsader says, this kind of trading is causing market instability—to the extent that the right set of circumstances could set off a cascade much worse than the flash crash of 2010.

“You might hear, ‘we’re doing fine, now,’” Hunsader says. “Well, yes, everything will be just fine as long as, as the news is sunshine-y happy. If you get a shock to system, you’re going to see very quickly just how undercapacity we are.”

Not everybody sees high speed trading as dangerous, of course. CNBC spoke to Jim Overdahl, a vice president at NERA Economic Consulting, who argued that high frequency trades are an important tool for professional traders.

“I think the bottom line argument on the benefits of high-frequency trading: it’s a risk management tool for professional traders,” Oberdhal said. “It allows them to quickly revise their quotes and offer better quotes because they’re able to manage the risk of being picked off by better informed trader or traders with superior information about order flow or market moving news.”

by Eamon Javers CNBC May 15, 2012


The Dangers of High-Speed Trading - US Business News - CNBC

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Ally's mortgage arm files for Chapter 11

DETROIT - The U.S. government is hoping that Monday's bankruptcy filing by Ally Financial Inc.'s troubled mortgage business will help the company repay its government bailout faster.

Residential Capital LLC, or ResCap, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York, unable to make payments on debt taken out to finance soured home mortgages. The filing will separate the money-losing ResCap subsidiary from Ally's auto-loan and banking businesses, allowing the latter businesses to grow and speed up repayment of Ally's bailout from 2008 and 2009, Ally said in a statement.

Ally also said Monday that it is exploring the possible sale of its international operations, a move that also should help strengthen its finances and make payments to the government. International businesses include auto loan, insurance and banking operations in Canada, Mexico, Europe, England and South America.

Ally, which is 74 percent owned by the U.S. government, was the financial arm of General Motors Co. until the banking industry meltdown in 2008. It needed a $17.2 billion bailout to survive the downturn. Ally has repaid about $5.5 billion and it still owes the government just under $12 billion. The government is hoping to get the rest of the money back through a public stock offering by Ally, or perhaps the sale of its remaining businesses.

When the bankruptcy and potential sale of international operations are finished, Ally expects to repay two-thirds of its bailout, or about $11 billion. The additional payments could come by year's end, the company said.

"We believe that this action puts taxpayers in a stronger position to continue recovering their investment in Ally Financial," Assistant Treasury Secretary Timothy Massad said in a statement. ResCap is a separate company, and the government does not hold any debt or equity in it, the government said. The ResCap board decided to seek bankruptcy protection on Sunday.

Ally's statement said that ResCap has reached agreements with its key creditors for a speedy bankruptcy. But Ally has to put up $150 million for bankruptcy financing and pay $750 million to ResCap to make the deal work. Ally also will make the first bid on up to $1.6 billion worth of troubled mortgages that will be auctioned. The agreements made before the filing have milestones for ResCap to come out of bankruptcy protection by the end of the year, Ally said.

ResCap also has agreements with big investors in mortgage-backed securities to support the bankruptcy reorganization, Ally said.

Ally makes loans to GM and Chrysler customers and finances dealer inventories. The government first bailed out the company, then known as GMAC Inc., in late 2008. Additional funding was provided in May and December 2009.

by Tom Krisher - May. 14, 2012 06:19 PM Associated Press




Ally's mortgage arm files for Chapter 11